Debunking the January Barometer

Question; If an event were to occur 66% of the time regardless of any other outside criteria other than a calculation of the entire data series, then how relevant would a 70% outcome be if a certain criteria were added to the mix? The answer is it would NOT be relevant at all. In fact the Dow Jones rallies in 66% of the years (last 100 years) regardless of the January Barometer so you are only improving your result by 3% by adding the January barometer criteria (6% is derived from the difference between 70% and 66%/ 66%)

In fact, of the 15 worst years (all negative returns) in the Dow Jones for the last 50 years, fully 8 of those years had positive returns in the first 5 trading days of the year(January barometer criteria) that is 53% so in fact you could say that 70% of the time the January Barometer can forecast an up year but 53% of the time it can forecast an absymal year. Let's stop all this talk about the January Barometer, statistically, its meaningless.